Intel shares plunge 28% on weak Q4 outlook, wiping $12B off US government stake

Intel shares collapsed by roughly 28% on Friday, one of the worst single-session declines in the company's history, after management guided fourth-quarter results well below Wall Street's expectations. According to TechCrunch, the selloff erased about $12 billion from the value of the US government's stake in the chipmaker — a figure reported by CNBC — and pulled much of the semiconductor industry into the red alongside it.

A guidance miss triggered the rout

Intel told investors to expect fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion, TechCrunch reports, against analyst estimates of roughly $17 billion. The company also warned that gross margin would slip from 43% to 37%, and that heavy investment spending would leave it with no positive cash flow for the quarter.

The proximate cause, by the company's own account, is a deteriorating PC market. AI data-center buildouts are consuming enormous quantities of memory and other components, tightening supply and pushing up the cost of building a PC — which in turn is chilling demand from corporate buyers.

"Our customers began signaling a PC slowdown based on the memory prices and availability," Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan said on the earnings call. "Year-to-date system endpoint prices have increased significantly, placing additional pressure on already limited IT budgets."

Two high-profile shareholders absorb the hit

The US government bought its 10% stake a little over a year ago under the Trump administration, and Nvidia acquired a sizeable position in Intel in 2025, TechCrunch notes. Both holdings shrank on paper on Friday, and Nvidia's own shares slipped modestly as chipmakers broadly sold off.

Neither investor is underwater, though. Intel's stock remains up more than 70% for the year, TechCrunch points out, so the government and Nvidia are still sitting on gains — just considerably smaller ones than at the stock's summer peak.

Data center growth is real, capacity is the constraint

There was one clear bright spot: revenue from Intel's data center business grew 78% year over year. But the company cannot fully capitalize on that demand until it brings more fabrication capacity online and signs external foundry customers, a market where it competes with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.

That ramp is slow. One of Intel's new fabs in Arizona is operational, but the next facility is not expected to come online until 2028.

Why it matters

The episode ties public money directly to the fortunes of a single chipmaker: one earnings report moved the government's position by $12 billion in a single day, a level of volatility that will invite continued scrutiny of the decision to buy the stake.

It also exposes a second-order effect of the AI boom. The same demand wave lifting data-center suppliers is draining the pool of memory and components that traditional PC makers rely on, raising prices for everyday corporate hardware and squeezing a business line Intel still depends on. AI enthusiasm and PC weakness are, right now, the same story.

Finally, the fab timeline caps the recovery. With the next Arizona facility not due until 2028, Intel's ability to convert booming data-center demand into foundry revenue against TSMC is limited by construction schedules rather than demand — leaving investors to price in a long and expensive wait.