Texas data center boom threatens to erase decades of air quality gains, HARC report warns

A new report from the Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC) warns that the wave of data centers being built in Texas to support generative AI could return air pollution to levels last seen in the mid-2000s — enough, in one scenario, to undo decades of air quality progress in roughly five years. The Verge, which reported the findings, describes Texas as the epicenter of the physical buildout behind generative AI.

What the report projects

According to The Verge, HARC modeled a scenario in which every planned data center project in Texas comes online and draws electricity from the anticipated grid mix. Under that outcome:

• Fine particle pollution, or soot, from the power sector would more than triple, reaching its highest level since 2006.
• Smog-forming NOx emissions would grow 136 percent, approaching pollution levels last recorded in 2004.
• Carbon dioxide emissions would rise 90 percent above 2025 levels.

None of this is fixed. HARC based its analysis on three projections for data center energy demand, and The Verge notes that many proposed projects are speculative and may never materialize. The result hinges on how developers and utilities supply the enormous amounts of electricity these facilities demand.

Onsite generation cuts both ways

How each data center sources its power is the decisive variable. If developers combine grid electricity with solar and wind generation built onsite, NOx emissions could be as much as 10 times lower, the report found.

The reverse is also on the table. To bypass lengthy delays in connecting to the grid, some developers are installing gas engines onsite to power their facilities directly — the path HARC identified as producing the highest pollution of the scenarios it examined. The Verge also reports that, in many cases, developers are choosing less efficient gas turbine designs to accelerate construction, making the boom more polluting than it needs to be.

Texas leads the buildout

Texas has become the largest data center market in the country when measured by how much power facilities draw, with 26 gigawatts of existing and under-construction capacity, according to The Verge. A separate Wood Mackenzie analysis published in March found the state facing four times more proposed data center capacity running on onsite power generation than any other state.

Why it matters

The report casts the AI infrastructure expansion as a direct threat to public health gains that took decades to secure. "There is a good chance that our children and grandchildren will breathe dirtier air than we did," John Hall, HARC's CEO, said in a press release cited by The Verge. Hall added that the transportation sector, the state and other stakeholders spent decades successfully cutting these emissions, and that this progress is now at risk.

The broader consequence: the environmental cost of generative AI is being set now, project by project. Whether the Texas buildout pushes soot and smog back toward 2000s-era levels or stays near current trends depends less on AI itself than on power procurement decisions — grid power versus onsite gas, and how fast renewable capacity can scale alongside demand. With grid interconnection delays already nudging developers toward dirtier shortcuts, the window for steering the boom toward cleaner outcomes is closing.